The days of your first two picks having to be running backs are officially over. In this years draft you’re going to see at least two QB's and one WR taken in the first round. With that being said, the good news is that you should be able to get a pretty solid RB in the 1st round if you don’t want to reach for either Brady, Manning, or Moss. In my opinion you have to draft at least one RB in the first two rounds. I agree that drafting strategy has changed and would not recommend a RB in both the 1st and 2nd round but you NEED to pick one up by the end of the 2nd round in order to have a successful team. The following is a list of my top 20 RB's. One caveat to this list is that I do not take receptions into consideration; the only real player this would affect is Brian Westbrook.
1. L. Tomlinson (Chargers) - Best RB hands down, no arguments. He should go #1 in every single draft. Averages 21 rushing TD's a year for the last three years and could throw a couple each year. Slowing down a little but look for him to get you 1,400 yards and 14-17 TD's this year.
2. A. Peterson (Vikings) - Could be the best athlete of the RB's. Have to question his ability to stay healthy and lack of QB could allow defenses to stack up against him. Ran for over 1,300 yards and 12 TD's last year. Has a great offensive line but awful QB. If Farve lands in Minnesota Peterson's stock sky rockets but don’t expect the Packers to let him go to the arch rival. Project Peterson to get you 1,600 yards and 12-15 TD's without Farve.
3. S. Jackson (Rams) - The offensive line was decimated last year and Jackson pulled his groin and still managed over 1,000 yards and 5 TD's. In 2006 a healthy Jackson had 16 TD's (13 rushing). The Rams are an improved team this year and everyone is healthy (for now). If he can stay healthy, expect totals closer to his 2006 numbers. Look for S. Jack to get you 1,300 yards and 10-13 TD's but has great upside to get you more.
4. J. Addai (Colts) - He plays for a winning team that likes to score points, lots of points. He has exceeded 1,000 yards in each of his first two years in the league. He had more red zone carries than any other RB in the NFL last year so he is a trusted commodity near paydirt. Don't let the acquisition of RB Dominic Rhodes deter you. Look for Addai to get you 1,200 yards and 10-13 TD's. Solid RB anywhere around the 4-8 hole of the draft.
5. B. Westbrook (Eagles) - Exciting back that will get you yards, receptions, and some TD's. If your league focuses on TD's I would rank him lower than 5. Westbrook is a prime example of a risk/reward player. He is prone to injury and doesn’t have much of a supporting cast in Philly so a heavy workload year in and year out could lead to injury but could also lead to a big year. Assuming he stays healthy, he is one of the best in the game. If healthy, look for him to get you 1,100 yards (rushing) and 10-12 total TD's (rushing and receiving).
6. M. Barber (Cowboys) - "Marion and Barbarian". He has a knack at picking up short yardage and wont be splitting carries at least this year with Felix Jones. Great pick in a TD league, wont get you the total yardage other RB's will but should have a great year as the featured back for the first time in his career. Has a great supporting cast and this offense will light it up this year, so look for Barber to cash in. I project him to get 1,100 yards and 12-15 TD's. Great pick toward the end of the 1st round.
7. C. Portis (Redskins) - Portis was back to his Denver days last year totaling over 1,200 yards and 11 rushing TD's. He carried the load last year and will have to again with unproven QB Jason Campbell at the helm. I don’t expect Portis to exceed or even replicate last years numbers but consider him a solid RB toward the end of the 1st round. Look for him to get 1,100 yards and 7-9 TD's.
8. F. Gore (49ers) - Two forces going in opposite directions will affect Gore this year. They are Mike Martz and Alex Smith. Martz has the scheme to make Gore great and a real commodity in fantasy football, while Alex Smith, well he’s awful and kills the value of Gore. I believe Martz's system alone will allow Gore to improve on his '07 numbers of 1,102 and 5 rushing TD's. Good late first round pick (11 or 12). Look for him to get you 1,200 yards and 7-9 TD's.
9. M. Lynch (Bills) - Had a great rookie year gaining 1,115 yards and 7 TD's. Buffalo will have an improved offense this year and they like to run the ball especially in the chilly Buffalo weather later in the season. Lynch is a great second RB and low-end #1. Look for Lynch to get you 1,200 yards and 7-9 TD's this year with potential to surprise you this year.
10. L. Johnson (Chiefs) - We all know the numbers he is capable of (1,800 yards and 19 TD's in 2007) unfortunately the Chiefs don't have the same offensive line as 2007 coupled with the fact that the Chiefs have one of the worst starting QB's in the NFL. LJ is 29, coming off an injury to his foot, has a terrible QB, and not much of an offensive line. With that being said he would be a good #2 RB, look for him to get you 1,100 yards and 7-9 TD's.
11. W. McGahee (Ravens) - McGahee had a good year last year making his 1st Pro Bowl. He was on a bad team with a bad QB and battered o-line and still managed 1,200 and 7 TD's. Look for him to get you 1,100 yards and 7-9 TD's this year. McGahee isnt going to shock anyone this year, he is a consistent back but doesn’t have the potential to get you 10-12 TD's. Good #2 back.
12. J. Lewis (Browns) - This guy is an animal/bruiser. He came back to life last year after everyone thought his career was over. The Browns offense is going to be explosive this year with all of their weapons. The appealing aspect to Lewis is that he doesn’t split goal line carries with anyone. He is getting older at age 29 and has logged a lot of carries throughout his carrier. Look for Lewis to approach 1,000 yards and get you 7-10 TD's this year.
13. M. Jones-Drew (Jaguars) - Jones-Drew has is a reliable RB with a high potential for touchdowns. The downside is that he will split carries with Fred Taylor but Jones-Drew still gets the majority of the goal-line work. Consider him a very good #2 RB and is worth a mid to late second round pick. Look for Jones-Drew to approach 1,000 yards and has the potential to get you double digit TD’s.
14. B. Jacobs (Giants) – Everyone’s concern here is injury and rightfully so but if this guy stays healthy the upside is well worth the pick. In a TD league he is extremely valuable. He will get the majority of the goal line carries, he’s in a contract year (show me the money), and he’s proven he can score. The Giants offense will put up some points this year so look for Jacobs to have a good ’08 campaign. I’m big on Jacobs this year and think he would be a great #2 back that you can probably get in the fourth round. Look for him to get you 1,100 and 8-10 TD’s with the potential for more TD’s.
15. R. Grant (Packers) - No Farve is going to equate to a tough year for R. Grant. If your a believer in A. Rodgers then you should feel comfortable taking this guy a little higher than 15, but I have no reason to believe in A. Rodgers and don’t tell me about the 1/2 of football he played against Dallas, that’s not enough. Not sold on Grant, was mediocre at ND, got cut in NY and has no Farve this year. A full year with A. Rodgers at QB will get Grant 1,100 yards and 6-8 TD's at best.
16. L. Maroney (Pats) – Here is another guy with pretty big upside, the problem is obviously Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Maroney is a talented runner, if the Pats can show that they are dedicated to running the ball or maintaining a balanced offense he could be a stud. As it stands Brady and Moss own the offensive show in New England. Look for a healthy Maroney to improve from last year and approach 1,100 yards and get 6-7 TD’s.
17. R. Bush (Saints) – Could be the steal as far as #2 RB’s go. I think Bush will have a breakout season this year and could get you double digit TD’s. He is a very versatile and talented player who has yet to breakout. I think Brees will find ways to get Bush the ball. If receptions count in your league, rank Bush a couple of notches higher than 17. New Orleans will be creative this year and I expect Bush to capitalize. Bush is a very good #2 RB. Look for Bush to approach 1,000 yards rushing and get you a total of 8-10 TD’s this season.
18. R. Johnson (Bengals) – Going into last year, R. Johnson was a sure 1st round pick and had 12 TD’s three years in a row. One year later, and an injured hamstring, my how things have changed. I would consider Johnson a low end #2 RB with decent potential to surprise this year but K. Watson is hot on his trail and the Bengals are going to struggle this year. I think Johnson is past his prime, expect to get 800-1,000 yards and 5-7 TD’s.
19. W. Parker (Steelers) – Parker has three straight 1,200+ yard years, however, his touchdown production dropped off significantly last year. In 2006 he had 16 total TD’s and last year he had only 2. If you get rewarded highly for just yards in your league then Parker should be rated much higher than 20, however, if receptions and TD’s are worth anything then Parker will struggle for you this year, he doesn’t catch the ball out of the backfield and by drafting R. Mendenhall that signifies the end of Parkers goal line touches.
20. E. Graham (Bucs) - Graham had a breakout year in 2007 after Cadillac went down with a bum knee. The fact that Gruden stacks talent at skilled positions (Warrick Dunn, Cadillac Williams, and Michael Bennett) will make any Graham owner nervous but you can expect Graham to get the goal line carries and is the lead candidate to start opening day for the Bucs. Look for Graham to get you 1,100 yards and 6-9 TD's. He could be a sleeper this year and has potential to get you 10+ TD's very easily.
OTHER NOTABLES:
Michael Turner (Falcons) - will struggle this year, the Falcons are god awful and have an unproven starting QB, look for defenses to stack the line against Turner and shut him down all year.
D. McFadden (Raiders) – I can only hope that people in my draft reach for this guy. The Raiders and going to struggle again this year and Russell is unproven. McFadden is not the Adrian Peterson of this year and would a bad #2 back on your team.
R. Brown (Dolphins) – Had a good start to the season last year but tore his ACL. I stay away from players that have knee issues especially the year after the injury. He could be back to normal but typically an ACL takes two full years to totally recover. Buyers beware with Ronnie Brown this year.
J. Stewart (Panthers) – Stewart will have the best rookie RB’s campaign of the bunch. I don’t recommend him as a #2 back but would be a great #3 back. He will be the featured back at the start of the season as D. Williams has fallen out of favor with Coach Fox.
1. L. Tomlinson (Chargers) - Best RB hands down, no arguments. He should go #1 in every single draft. Averages 21 rushing TD's a year for the last three years and could throw a couple each year. Slowing down a little but look for him to get you 1,400 yards and 14-17 TD's this year.
2. A. Peterson (Vikings) - Could be the best athlete of the RB's. Have to question his ability to stay healthy and lack of QB could allow defenses to stack up against him. Ran for over 1,300 yards and 12 TD's last year. Has a great offensive line but awful QB. If Farve lands in Minnesota Peterson's stock sky rockets but don’t expect the Packers to let him go to the arch rival. Project Peterson to get you 1,600 yards and 12-15 TD's without Farve.
3. S. Jackson (Rams) - The offensive line was decimated last year and Jackson pulled his groin and still managed over 1,000 yards and 5 TD's. In 2006 a healthy Jackson had 16 TD's (13 rushing). The Rams are an improved team this year and everyone is healthy (for now). If he can stay healthy, expect totals closer to his 2006 numbers. Look for S. Jack to get you 1,300 yards and 10-13 TD's but has great upside to get you more.
4. J. Addai (Colts) - He plays for a winning team that likes to score points, lots of points. He has exceeded 1,000 yards in each of his first two years in the league. He had more red zone carries than any other RB in the NFL last year so he is a trusted commodity near paydirt. Don't let the acquisition of RB Dominic Rhodes deter you. Look for Addai to get you 1,200 yards and 10-13 TD's. Solid RB anywhere around the 4-8 hole of the draft.
5. B. Westbrook (Eagles) - Exciting back that will get you yards, receptions, and some TD's. If your league focuses on TD's I would rank him lower than 5. Westbrook is a prime example of a risk/reward player. He is prone to injury and doesn’t have much of a supporting cast in Philly so a heavy workload year in and year out could lead to injury but could also lead to a big year. Assuming he stays healthy, he is one of the best in the game. If healthy, look for him to get you 1,100 yards (rushing) and 10-12 total TD's (rushing and receiving).
6. M. Barber (Cowboys) - "Marion and Barbarian". He has a knack at picking up short yardage and wont be splitting carries at least this year with Felix Jones. Great pick in a TD league, wont get you the total yardage other RB's will but should have a great year as the featured back for the first time in his career. Has a great supporting cast and this offense will light it up this year, so look for Barber to cash in. I project him to get 1,100 yards and 12-15 TD's. Great pick toward the end of the 1st round.
7. C. Portis (Redskins) - Portis was back to his Denver days last year totaling over 1,200 yards and 11 rushing TD's. He carried the load last year and will have to again with unproven QB Jason Campbell at the helm. I don’t expect Portis to exceed or even replicate last years numbers but consider him a solid RB toward the end of the 1st round. Look for him to get 1,100 yards and 7-9 TD's.
8. F. Gore (49ers) - Two forces going in opposite directions will affect Gore this year. They are Mike Martz and Alex Smith. Martz has the scheme to make Gore great and a real commodity in fantasy football, while Alex Smith, well he’s awful and kills the value of Gore. I believe Martz's system alone will allow Gore to improve on his '07 numbers of 1,102 and 5 rushing TD's. Good late first round pick (11 or 12). Look for him to get you 1,200 yards and 7-9 TD's.
9. M. Lynch (Bills) - Had a great rookie year gaining 1,115 yards and 7 TD's. Buffalo will have an improved offense this year and they like to run the ball especially in the chilly Buffalo weather later in the season. Lynch is a great second RB and low-end #1. Look for Lynch to get you 1,200 yards and 7-9 TD's this year with potential to surprise you this year.
10. L. Johnson (Chiefs) - We all know the numbers he is capable of (1,800 yards and 19 TD's in 2007) unfortunately the Chiefs don't have the same offensive line as 2007 coupled with the fact that the Chiefs have one of the worst starting QB's in the NFL. LJ is 29, coming off an injury to his foot, has a terrible QB, and not much of an offensive line. With that being said he would be a good #2 RB, look for him to get you 1,100 yards and 7-9 TD's.
11. W. McGahee (Ravens) - McGahee had a good year last year making his 1st Pro Bowl. He was on a bad team with a bad QB and battered o-line and still managed 1,200 and 7 TD's. Look for him to get you 1,100 yards and 7-9 TD's this year. McGahee isnt going to shock anyone this year, he is a consistent back but doesn’t have the potential to get you 10-12 TD's. Good #2 back.
12. J. Lewis (Browns) - This guy is an animal/bruiser. He came back to life last year after everyone thought his career was over. The Browns offense is going to be explosive this year with all of their weapons. The appealing aspect to Lewis is that he doesn’t split goal line carries with anyone. He is getting older at age 29 and has logged a lot of carries throughout his carrier. Look for Lewis to approach 1,000 yards and get you 7-10 TD's this year.
13. M. Jones-Drew (Jaguars) - Jones-Drew has is a reliable RB with a high potential for touchdowns. The downside is that he will split carries with Fred Taylor but Jones-Drew still gets the majority of the goal-line work. Consider him a very good #2 RB and is worth a mid to late second round pick. Look for Jones-Drew to approach 1,000 yards and has the potential to get you double digit TD’s.
14. B. Jacobs (Giants) – Everyone’s concern here is injury and rightfully so but if this guy stays healthy the upside is well worth the pick. In a TD league he is extremely valuable. He will get the majority of the goal line carries, he’s in a contract year (show me the money), and he’s proven he can score. The Giants offense will put up some points this year so look for Jacobs to have a good ’08 campaign. I’m big on Jacobs this year and think he would be a great #2 back that you can probably get in the fourth round. Look for him to get you 1,100 and 8-10 TD’s with the potential for more TD’s.
15. R. Grant (Packers) - No Farve is going to equate to a tough year for R. Grant. If your a believer in A. Rodgers then you should feel comfortable taking this guy a little higher than 15, but I have no reason to believe in A. Rodgers and don’t tell me about the 1/2 of football he played against Dallas, that’s not enough. Not sold on Grant, was mediocre at ND, got cut in NY and has no Farve this year. A full year with A. Rodgers at QB will get Grant 1,100 yards and 6-8 TD's at best.
16. L. Maroney (Pats) – Here is another guy with pretty big upside, the problem is obviously Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Maroney is a talented runner, if the Pats can show that they are dedicated to running the ball or maintaining a balanced offense he could be a stud. As it stands Brady and Moss own the offensive show in New England. Look for a healthy Maroney to improve from last year and approach 1,100 yards and get 6-7 TD’s.
17. R. Bush (Saints) – Could be the steal as far as #2 RB’s go. I think Bush will have a breakout season this year and could get you double digit TD’s. He is a very versatile and talented player who has yet to breakout. I think Brees will find ways to get Bush the ball. If receptions count in your league, rank Bush a couple of notches higher than 17. New Orleans will be creative this year and I expect Bush to capitalize. Bush is a very good #2 RB. Look for Bush to approach 1,000 yards rushing and get you a total of 8-10 TD’s this season.
18. R. Johnson (Bengals) – Going into last year, R. Johnson was a sure 1st round pick and had 12 TD’s three years in a row. One year later, and an injured hamstring, my how things have changed. I would consider Johnson a low end #2 RB with decent potential to surprise this year but K. Watson is hot on his trail and the Bengals are going to struggle this year. I think Johnson is past his prime, expect to get 800-1,000 yards and 5-7 TD’s.
19. W. Parker (Steelers) – Parker has three straight 1,200+ yard years, however, his touchdown production dropped off significantly last year. In 2006 he had 16 total TD’s and last year he had only 2. If you get rewarded highly for just yards in your league then Parker should be rated much higher than 20, however, if receptions and TD’s are worth anything then Parker will struggle for you this year, he doesn’t catch the ball out of the backfield and by drafting R. Mendenhall that signifies the end of Parkers goal line touches.
20. E. Graham (Bucs) - Graham had a breakout year in 2007 after Cadillac went down with a bum knee. The fact that Gruden stacks talent at skilled positions (Warrick Dunn, Cadillac Williams, and Michael Bennett) will make any Graham owner nervous but you can expect Graham to get the goal line carries and is the lead candidate to start opening day for the Bucs. Look for Graham to get you 1,100 yards and 6-9 TD's. He could be a sleeper this year and has potential to get you 10+ TD's very easily.
OTHER NOTABLES:
Michael Turner (Falcons) - will struggle this year, the Falcons are god awful and have an unproven starting QB, look for defenses to stack the line against Turner and shut him down all year.
D. McFadden (Raiders) – I can only hope that people in my draft reach for this guy. The Raiders and going to struggle again this year and Russell is unproven. McFadden is not the Adrian Peterson of this year and would a bad #2 back on your team.
R. Brown (Dolphins) – Had a good start to the season last year but tore his ACL. I stay away from players that have knee issues especially the year after the injury. He could be back to normal but typically an ACL takes two full years to totally recover. Buyers beware with Ronnie Brown this year.
J. Stewart (Panthers) – Stewart will have the best rookie RB’s campaign of the bunch. I don’t recommend him as a #2 back but would be a great #3 back. He will be the featured back at the start of the season as D. Williams has fallen out of favor with Coach Fox.
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