Quarterback Rankings

Quarterback Overview: Sachie

As any serious fantasy football player can tell you, the landscape of the game has changed a bit. It used to be common practice for players to take a running back in each of the first 2 rounds. Sure you had the Peyton Mannings and Terrell Owens mixed in, but for the most part players would wait on their quarterbacks and receivers.

That style of play is a thing of the past. Part of the reason is the rules in the NFL. Defensive backs can’t touch receivers after 5 yards. This rule heavily favors the offense and it is also the reason we are seeing more teams go to spread type offenses. The result is prolific passing and receiving numbers. Think about it. Two quarterbacks have broken the single season passing touchdown record in the past 4 years. 8 quarterbacks had 28 or more td passes last year alone. However, the quagmire is that it seems like for every good QB there is in the NFL, there is a young QB learning or well…a bad QB.

What does that mean for your draft? Well, if a quarterback can carry you for the whole season, why not take him before a running back? If Tony Romo is going to get you 30-35 scores, why waste a late first round pick on Clinton Portis and get 10-12 scores? It’s a question many players will ask themselves this August. Also, there is a big drop off from the top QB’s to the bottom ones and it’s almost an instant fall.

Here is a breakdown of my top 32 QB’s (based on projected starters) and where I think they may be worth taking in a 12 team, 14 round draft:

1. Tom Brady (Patriots): Brady may have had the best statistical year in history of NFL quarterbacks. With 50 tds he carried most fantasy teams last year. Don’t expect similar numbers this season. It’s just too difficult to duplicate that kind of production. Still, if he averages 1 less td a game he would still throw in the low 30’s. Draft him in the 1st round, but not too high. I would say btw. 6-8 is a perfect spot for Brady.

2. Peyton Manning (Colts): Never missed a game and has never thrown less than 26 td’s in a season. You can mark him down for 4,000 and 30. Don’t worry about Marvin Harrison’s situation being up in the air, Peyton will get his numbers. Reggie Wayne is a stud and Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark will pick up the slack if Harrison is a shell of his former self. Don’t let the minor knee surgery he just had stop you from grabbing Manning anywhere from picks 7-12 in the first round.

3. Tony Romo (Cowboys): I loved Romo last year. I told anyone who would listen that he could throw 25 tds by accident in that offense. He carried my team all the way to championship game. Do I think he will get 38 total td’s again this year? No. But he should put up about 4000 yards and get you around 30 scores. He is a late 1st, low 2nd round pick. If you have the wrap around pick this year you would be wise to grab Romo with one of your selections.

4. Drew Brees (Saints): Brees had an up and down year in 2007 and still threw for 28 TD’s and almost 4,500 yards. If you are in a league where completions count, you may want to put Brees as the # 2 QB. He had 440 completions in 2007! Don’t be scared by his slow start last season (1 td and 7 ints through week 3), it was an aberration. Brees will put up 25 scores and throw for 4000 yards in Sean Payton’s pass happy O. If he is there early in the 2nd round, jump on him. He is also enticing if you have the wrap around pick.

5. Carson Palmer (Bengals): As good as Palmer is statistically, there are some red flags here. Chad Johnson is unhappy and just had ankle surgery (although minor), his offensive line was a mess, and Chris Henry (although crazy) was a terrific 3rd option. His passing td’s have decreased each of the last 3 years (32, 28, 26). Still, Houshmanzadeh had a breakout year in 07 and Johnson (baggage and all) a terrific football player. Carson should be there in the 3rd or 4th round and would be a great value pick there. Even if he struggles, he should get you 25 scores and close to 4,00 yards.

6. Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers): Big Ben had a career year in 2007 tossing 32 td’s and running for 2 more. The Steelers are loaded offensively and Mike Tomlin has the Steelers throwing the ball a lot. Don’t be scared off by Ben’s 2006 season (18 td’s 23 picks) and think 2007 was a fluke. 2006 was the fluke. Roethlisberger is a top 10 fantasy QB and may even be worth taking over Palmer. For now, I am putting him as the number 6 QB on the list and would advice grabbing him in the 4th round.

7. Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks): If there has ever been an underrated fantasy QB its Hasselbeck. He has put up at least 22 passing scores in 4 out of the last 5 years (injuries kept him to 12 games and 18 tds in 2006). A lot has been made about him not having Branch to start the season but Burleson and Engram combined for 15 of Matt’s 28 scores last season. There is a good chance you could draft 2 RB’s and 3 WR’s and still get Matt in the 6th round. Why risk it though? I would grab him in the 5th and get a consistent performance though 16 games.

8. Eli Manning (Giants): Little high for him right? Well I’m basing this on a couple of things. He is coming off a super bowl win against a team that was 18-0 coming into that game. No one expected them to win and he is a hero in New York. That should keep the pressure off until at least…say…late October. Consider this, Eli has thrown 24, 24, and 23 td’s over the past 3 years with a couple of rushing td’s mixed in. Coming into his 4th full season, with good players all around him, should be a recipe for a good year. Take into consideration he will play in sloppy weather come November and December but my prediction is Eli will take a big jump this year. Grab him in the 6th round in most drafts.

9. Marc Bulger (Rams): Wow, I no longer feel confident in my QB’s! Keep in mind that last season Bulger battled injuries, the loss of Orlando Pace and had a banged up Steven Jackson. Al Saunders is now the OC and I think he will get the Rams offense back to being a solid unit. I think the loss of Issac Bruce will hurt Bulger more than people think but he is a good choice in the 6th round.

10. Donovan McNabb (Eagles): While I think McNabb is a better performer than # 10, he just can’t stay on the field. He only missed 2 games last year but he can’t be trusted to play a full 16 games. Don’t take him any earlier than the 6th round and make sure you get a decent backup, maybe even taking a Cutler or Rivers in, say, the 8th round.

11. Derek Anderson (Browns): You maybe wondering how I can have a guy who threw for 29 td’s last year at number 11? Easy answer, I don’t think he’s going to be starting by mid season. In Anderson’s last 6 games, he threw for 8td’s and 9 picks. He was booed in the Brown’s last game. Cleveland does have weapons all over the field but their schedule is tough. They could easily start out 2-5. If that happens, you could see Brady Quinn. Someone will reach for Anderson in the 3rd or 4h round. Let them. Unless he is there in the middle rounds I would pass on Anderson and if you do draft him, take Quinn with your last pick just in case.

12. Jay Cutler (Broncos): Cutler played well and showed promise last year tossing 20 td passes and throwing for about 3500 yards. If Brandon Marshall is healthy and not suspended, I like Cutler a lot. If Marshall if not up to par, I’m not sure how much Brandon Stokley and Darrel Jackson can help Cutler. Still, he is worth a 6th or 7th round pick and could have big upside for you.

13. Aaron Rodgers (Packers): Rodgers is my boom or bust pick. Mike McCarthy’s offense is very QB friendly. He has Jennings, Driver and a cast of others to throw to. When he took over for an injured Brett Favre in Dallas last year, he played extremely well. Rodgers could end up putting up some terrific numbers this year… he could also be backing up Brett Favre. If Favre does not return to the Pack, Rodgers is worth a shot in the 8th or 9th round. He might be a good insurance pick if you have taken McNabb or Anderson.

14. Philip Rivers (Chargers): Rivers seems like a lock for 20 touchdown passes as he has thrown 22 and 21 in his first 2 years. It took some time for the Chargers to adjust to Norv Turner, but once they did the team took off. In Rivers last 6 games, he threw for 10td’s to only 3 picks. He should be there in the 8th or 9th round and is a low end # 1 option and a terrific # 2 option.

15. Jake Delhomme (Panthers): If Jake is healthy we have a sleeper pick. He had 8 td’s to 1 pick before he went down and had to have Tommy John Surgery. He has a good o-line, Steve Smith, Mushin Muhammad , DJ Hacket and Jonathan Stewart (remember that name). Delhomme is another great # 2 option who could end up starting for you. I would nab him in the 8th round if he is there.

16. David Garrard (Jaguars): Garrard only played 12 games last year and threw for 18 td’s and ran for 1 more. Jacksonville should be a very good team this year and Garrard will put up respectable numbers. I’d use an 8th or 9th round pick on him and sleep easy knowing I have insurance for my starter.

17. Matt Leinart (Cardinals): I am going with the assumption that the Cardinals are going with Leinart this year. If Kurt Warner starts I would probably move him up somewhere btw. 10-13. Warner threw 27 td’s last year and will still probably end up on the bench to start the season. You would have to assume that, if starting, Leinart can put up some decent numbers throwing to Fitzgerald and Boldin and should be worth taking as a backup in the 10th round or so.

18. Jason Campbell (Redskins): Campbell was up and down last year but did show some promise tossing 12 td’s including a stretch of 6 in 3 games from weeks 10-12. New head coach Jim Zorn had said that the team would be throwing a lot more this season. Campbell is nothing more than a backup and should not be considered before the 10th round.

19: Matt Shaub (Texans): Shaub was supposed to come into Houston and be the man. Instead he had a injury plagued season that saw him throw as many (or should I say few) td’s as picks (9) and was outplayed by Sage Rosenfeld. Take into consideration that Gary Kubiak is a good coach and the Texans have an up and coming team. I take Shaub in the backend of the draft someplace in round 10 or 11.

20: Jeff Garcia (Bucs): Garcia is a steady player who won’t kill you. He’s not the touchdown- throwing machine he was in San Fran but he is a serviceable backup. He only threw 13 td’s last year in 13 games but pick him in 10th-11th round or so and hope the week he has to play he throws for a couple of scores

21: Jon Kitna (Lions): I am not a Kitna fan when it comes to my fantasy team. He has thrown more picks (22 and 20 picks the last 2 years) than td’s (21 and 18). He has also fumbled 15 times in the last 2 years. That means a lot of negative points for most of you. With Martz in San Fran, he has a new OC this year. I don’t know what to expect from the Lions but I do know that he has Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson to throw to and that can’t be completely ignored. Plus, we are running out of options here and I’d take Kitna as a backup…late...and pray that the week you need him he doesn’t plan on having 4-5 turnovers.

22. Alex Smith (49ers): Mike Martz has to count for something right? The word bust is starting to be whispered around Smith but I don’t think he is as bad as he is perceived. Smith really did have a decent 2nd season and seemed poised to breakout in 2008. The whole 49er offense was a mess last year and it started with their OC, Jim Hostler (plus Smith played 3 games with a separated shoulder). Alex Smith thrived in a spread offense at Utah and I think he will have a decent season since Martz also runs a spread O. If you still need a backup QB, Smith should be there anytime you want him. Don’t worry about Shawn Hill, I think the 49er QB competition is nothing more than a ploy to motivate Smith.

23: Chad Pennington (Jets): I think the Kellen Clemons experiment is over and Pennington will win the QB battle. The Jets had all kinds of problems last year and Pennington only threw for 10 tds in 9 games. Chad has never been one to put up big numbers but he could be a serviceable play in your starters bye week. He should be there in rounds 12-14.

24. Trent Edwards (Bills): I like Edward’s pocket presence and I think the Bills are going to be a pretty good team. The Bills will run the ball a lot but Edwards could still throw 12-15 tds. He might be a good waiver wire pickup or maybe worth a pick in one of the last rounds.

25. Vince Young (Titans): Oh boy. You know QB’s are thin when Vince Young might get drafted. Someone will take him because he is a name but he is not a good fantasy player. He had 12 combined td’s last year (9 passing and 3 rushing) and 17 picks. I think he will be better this year with Alge Crumpler as a safety net and rookie Chris Johnson possibly breaking a few screen passes. I would not draft him, although someone in your league inevitably will.

26. Tavaris Jackson (Vikings): I can’t see how some of the experts can pick Minnesota to be a super bowl team when they have Jackson under center. But that is for another column. When his team was fighting for a playoff spot, Jackson’s last 3 games saw him throw 5 picks to 3 tds. I think that he will be better than the 9 tds he threw last year but not much. Do not draft.

27. Brody Croyle (Chiefs): Why? Because I really like Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. Plus, if you need any of these next 6 qb’s your team probably has issues anyway.

28 JaMarcus Russell (Raiders): Russell will have his ups and downs this year. The Raiders line is suspect as are their receivers. I’m not sold on Javon Walker. If Russell starts to play well he should be on the waiver wire for you to grab.

29: Rex Grossman (Bears): Can you believe that it was just 2 years ago that Grossman was starting on some fantasy teams? Through 10 games in 2006, Grossman has 18 td’s to 11 picks. Since then? 9tds to 16 picks. Other than Greg Olsen, the Bears receivers just are not getting it done and Grossman is a turnover waiting to happen. Don’t touch him.

30: John Beck (Dolphins): Early indications are that Beck looks good in mini camp. Whether it is Beck, Henne or McCown, stay away.

31: Troy Smith (Ravens): If I were Baltimore I would give Flacco the nod sooner than later but until then I think you will see Troy Smith. He did throw a TD in each of his last 2 games but that might be the highlight of his career. Don’t draft a Baltimore QB this year.

32. Matt Ryan (Falcons): Ryan will probably be a good quarterback one day but he is going to take his lumps this season. Maybe by seasons end he might be worth a look on the waiver wire.